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CricketIndia tour of New Zealand, 2026 · game 11 of 12

New Zealand vs India 1st Test prediction

New Zealand54% · fair 1.85
KhelKing lean54%New Zealand 54%, India 46%
India46% · fair 2.17
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Thu, 26 Nov 2026
Venue
Basin Reserve, Wellington
Format
Test match · grassy, seam-friendly pitch
By KhelKing Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case · 01

Who wins NZ vs IND, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

New Zealand

  1. Rated 54% by KhelKing, which is a fair back price of 1.85.
  2. A projected 6-run cushion in the day-one total (253 to 247).
  3. Home conditions: New Zealand know a grassy, seam-friendly surface like this better than anyone.
  4. Matt Henry, their likeliest match-winner (dangerous with the new ball).

How they could upset it

India

  1. 46% to win, which is close to an even chance.
  2. One big session can flip the momentum of a series.
  3. Winning the toss on this pitch would hand them a few extra points.
  4. Virat Kohli can win a game single-handed (built for long innings).

By the numbers · 02

How many runs will New Zealand and India score?

Projected session-by-session runs on day one at Basin Reserve.

  • New Zealand rated 54%, a slight lean. Back them only at 1.85 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits seamers, with New Zealand projected to post the higher total.
  • New Zealand have home conditions in their favour.
KhelKing pick
New Zealand
Format
Test match
Pitch
grassy, seam-friendly
Suits
Seamers
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
New Zealand IndiaDay one: NZ 231-275 · IND 223-271

Deciding factors · 03

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Seam bowlers who hit a good length will draw early edges. Top orders that leave well outside off stump stand the best chance. New Zealand play on surfaces like this week in, week out.

    EdgeNew Zealand

  2. Toss call

    Field first. The smart play is to go after the top order while the surface is fresh.

    EdgeToss winner

  3. Series pressure

    A win puts New Zealand in charge with 1 game to go. A defeat hands India the momentum.

    EdgeNew Zealand

How to play it · 04

How should you back or lay NZ vs IND on KhelKing?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back

New Zealand

Accept 1.85 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.85 pays ₹185 including your stake.

Fair price1.8554%
Lay

India

Lay only at 2.17 or shorter. At 2.17, a ₹100 lay puts ₹117 at risk to win ₹100.

Fair price2.1746%
SaferThree ways to play itBolder

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back New Zealand

    Our most likely outcome. Once the back price drops below 1.85, the value is gone.

    54% chance1.85

  2. ValueBalanced

    New Zealand day-one total

    Over 238.5

    We project about 253, comfortably clear of 238.5, so a slow start can still land it.

    56% chance1.79

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Kane Williamson (New Zealand)

    Turns fifties into hundreds. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

    24% chance4.17

Match-winners · 05

Who can swing New Zealand vs India?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

New Zealand

  • Matt Henry88

    Dangerous with the new ball

  • Kane Williamson80

    Turns fifties into hundreds

India

  • Virat Kohli87

    Built for long innings

  • Jasprit Bumrah89

    Dangerous with the new ball

What could change · 06

What would change the KhelKing prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If

    Matt Henry misses out

    Then

    New Zealand would drop by about five points, turning this into a coin flip.

  2. If

    India win the toss

    Then

    On a pitch where the toss counts, that alone shifts a couple of points to India.

  3. If

    rain costs a day or more

    Then

    A draw becomes the likeliest result, and our win call loses most of its value.

The long read · 07

New Zealand vs India match preview

Without either, the favourites should stay in control.

With 1 game of India tour of New Zealand, 2026 still to play, match 11 can tilt the series. The KhelKing model leans to New Zealand at 54%, driven mostly by squad depth and how Basin Reserve has behaved in recent seasons. New Zealand are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. India need early wickets or one match-winning innings. Without either, the favourites should stay in control.

On the toss: Field first. The smart play is to go after the top order while the surface is fresh.

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline · 08

Fixture timeline: 1st Test

Rest days, travel and what comes next in India tour of New Zealand, 2026.

The 1st Test is staged at Basin Reserve in Wellington on Thu, 26 Nov 2026, game 11 of 12 in the series.

The 5th ODI comes 3 days before this game at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui, so the squads travel to Wellington in between. That is enough recovery for both sides to field their first-choice XIs.

Next on the calendar: the 2nd Test, 4 days after this game at Hagley Oval in Christchurch.

  1. 23 Nov5th ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaBay Oval
  2. 26 Nov · this match1st Test: New Zealand vs IndiaBasin Reserve
  3. 30 Nov2nd Test: New Zealand vs IndiaHagley Oval

Keep reading

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NZ vs IND 1st Test FAQs

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Who will win the New Zealand vs India 1st Test?

KhelKing expects New Zealand to win, rating them 54% against 46% for India, which is a slight lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a grassy, seam-friendly surface at Basin Reserve should play.

What are the fair odds for New Zealand in the NZ vs IND 1st Test?

A 54% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.85 for New Zealand and 2.17 for India. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the NZ vs IND 1st Test start in India?

The series window places it on Thu, 26 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) at Basin Reserve, Wellington, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. KhelKing updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Basin Reserve in the NZ vs IND 1st Test?

We expect a grassy, seam-friendly surface that should favour the quicks. Seam bowlers who hit a good length will draw early edges. Top orders that leave well outside off stump stand the best chance.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the NZ vs IND 1st Test?

Field first. The smart play is to go after the top order while the surface is fresh. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can India win the NZ vs IND 1st Test?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. KhelKing gives India a 46% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or New Zealand change their best XI.

Why could India upset New Zealand in the NZ vs IND 1st Test?

46% to win, which is close to an even chance. One big session can flip the momentum of a series. Winning the toss on this pitch would hand them a few extra points. Virat Kohli can win a game single-handed (built for long innings).

How should I trade the New Zealand vs India 1st Test on KhelKing?

By KhelKing numbers, back New Zealand at 1.85 or longer, or lay India at 2.17 or shorter. A lay wins whenever India fail to win; at 2.17, a ₹100 lay carries ₹117 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

New Zealand vs India 1st Test match kaun jeetega?

KhelKing ke model ke mutabik New Zealand ka palda bhaari hai: 54%, jabki India ka 46%. Match Thu, 26 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

NZ vs IND 1st Test ke liye Wellington ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch grassy, seam-friendly rahegi, yaani tez gendbaazon ko shuruaat mein swing aur seam milega. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the KhelKing model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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