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FootballPremier League · London derby

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Prediction, score and odds

Crystal Palace39% · fair 2.56
KhelKing lean39%Crystal Palace 39%, draw 30%, Arsenal 31%

Draw 30% · fair 3.33

Arsenal31% · fair 3.23
Kick-off
00:30 IST, next day · 19:00 UK
Date
Sun, 27 Dec 2026
Venue
Selhurst Park, London
UK broadcast
Sky Sports
By KhelKing Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case · 01

Who wins Palace vs Arsenal, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Crystal Palace

  1. 39% to win on the KhelKing goals model, a fair back price of 2.56.
  2. 1.24 expected goals to 1.09: they should create the better chances.
  3. Home advantage at Selhurst Park, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

Arsenal

  1. 31% to win plus 30% for the draw: 61% that Palace do not win.
  2. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  3. It is the London derby, where form often counts for little.

Goals model · 02

How many goals will there be in Palace vs Arsenal?

The KhelKing goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Palace 39%, draw 30%, Arsenal 31%: a coin flip.
  • Projected score 2-0, with a tight, low-scoring game likely (2.3 xG).
  • It is the London derby, so expect more bookings and fewer clear-cut chances.
Projected score
2-0
Half-time
0-0
Both score
47%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.09
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors · 03

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Palace are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    EdgePalace

  2. Expected goals

    At just 2.3 expected goals, the under is the natural lean, with over 2.5 landing only 41% of the time.

    EdgeFew goals

  3. Derby intensity

    The London derby brings added edge, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish tighter than the table suggests.

    EdgeDraw

How to play it · 04

How should you back or lay Palace vs Arsenal on KhelKing?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back

Crystal Palace

Accept 2.56 or longer. A ₹100 back at 2.56 pays ₹256 including your stake.

Fair price2.5639%
Lay

Arsenal

Lay only at 3.23 or shorter. At 3.23, a ₹100 lay puts ₹223 at risk to win ₹100.

Fair price3.2331%
SaferThree ways to play itBolder

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Double chance

    Palace or draw

    Covers two of the three outcomes. Only a Arsenal win loses.

    69% chance1.45

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Under 3.5

    A tight contest is the likeliest outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.

    80% chance1.25

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Palace 2-0 Arsenal

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

    7% chance14.29

Team shape · 05

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Crystal Palace

Palace are a pragmatic mid-table team: sturdy out of possession at Selhurst Park, but short of the creativity to dictate a game.

Away

Arsenal

Arsenal are set up to control the ball. They should own most of the possession on the road at Selhurst Park and keep Palace penned in for long stretches.

What could change · 06

What would change the KhelKing prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If

    Palace field a weakened XI

    Then

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If

    Arsenal score first

    Then

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If

    a red card arrives in the first hour

    Then

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read · 07

Palace vs Arsenal match preview

Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

Arsenal travel to Selhurst Park for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that KhelKing grades as a coin flip. As the London derby, form matters less than usual, so we have pulled the two sides closer together. We project 1.24 xG for Palace and 1.09 for Arsenal. Over thousands of simulated games, Palace come out on top in 39% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Arsenal. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

Fixture timeline · 08

Fixture timeline: Palace and Arsenal

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Palace play 8 days after their match away at Sunderland on 19 Dec. Next they are at home to Bournemouth 3 days after this game, so expect some rotation. Premier League game 17 of 38.

Arsenal play 8 days after their match at home to Man Utd on 19 Dec. Next they are away at Fulham 3 days after this game, so expect some rotation. Premier League game 17 of 38.

They meet again at Emirates Stadium on Wed, 03 Mar 2027, making this the first of their two league meetings. Shown in the UK on Sky Sports.

  1. 19 DecSunderland vs PalaceStadium of Light
  2. 19 DecArsenal vs Man UtdEmirates Stadium
  3. 27 Dec · this matchPalace vs ArsenalSelhurst Park
  4. 30 DecPalace vs BournemouthSelhurst Park
  5. 30 DecFulham vs ArsenalCraven Cottage

Keep reading

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FAQ · 10 questions

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

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Who will win Palace vs Arsenal?

KhelKing expects Crystal Palace to win. The goals model rates Palace 39%, the draw 30% and Arsenal 31%, which we grade as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Arsenal?

Our projected score is 2-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 14%.

What are the fair odds for Palace vs Arsenal?

By our numbers: Palace 2.56, draw 3.33, Arsenal 3.23. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the KhelKing model.

What time does Crystal Palace vs Arsenal kick off in India?

00:30 IST, next day in India (UK date Sun, 27 Dec 2026, 19:00 UK time), at Selhurst Park in London. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Arsenal upset Palace in Palace vs Arsenal?

31% to win plus 30% for the draw: 61% that Palace do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. It is the London derby, where form often counts for little.

How should I trade Palace vs Arsenal on KhelKing?

By KhelKing numbers, back Crystal Palace at 2.56 or longer, or lay Arsenal at 3.23 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Arsenal fail to win; at 3.23, a ₹100 lay carries ₹223 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Palace vs Arsenal match kaun jeetega?

KhelKing ke goals model mein Crystal Palace aage hain: Palace 39%, draw 30%, Arsenal 31%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-0 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Palace vs Arsenal?

We rate both teams to score at 47%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals sits at 41%.

Can Arsenal cause an upset in Palace vs Arsenal?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Palace's attack. KhelKing gives Arsenal a 31% chance.

How many goals are expected in Palace vs Arsenal?

2.3 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 11% of the time.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the KhelKing model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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