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FootballPremier League · North London derby

Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal Prediction, score and odds

Tottenham Hotspur45% · fair 2.22
KhelKing lean45%Tottenham Hotspur 45%, draw 29%, Arsenal 26%

Draw 29% · fair 3.45

Arsenal26% · fair 3.85
Kick-off
20:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 05 Dec 2026
Venue
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By KhelKing Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case · 01

Who wins Spurs vs Arsenal, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Tottenham Hotspur

  1. 45% to win on the KhelKing goals model, a fair back price of 2.22.
  2. 1.36 expected goals to 0.95: they should create the better chances.
  3. Home advantage at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

Arsenal

  1. 26% to win plus 29% for the draw: 55% that Spurs do not win.
  2. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  3. It is the North London derby, where form often counts for little.

Goals model · 02

How many goals will there be in Spurs vs Arsenal?

The KhelKing goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Spurs 45%, draw 29%, Arsenal 26%: a coin flip.
  • Projected score 2-0, with a tight, low-scoring game likely (2.3 xG).
  • It is the North London derby, so expect more bookings and fewer clear-cut chances.
Projected score
2-0
Half-time
0-0
Both score
46%
Expected goals
1.36 – 0.95
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors · 03

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Spurs are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    EdgeSpurs

  2. Expected goals

    At just 2.3 expected goals, the under is the natural lean, with over 2.5 landing only 41% of the time.

    EdgeFew goals

  3. Derby intensity

    The North London derby brings added edge, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish tighter than the table suggests.

    EdgeDraw

How to play it · 04

How should you back or lay Spurs vs Arsenal on KhelKing?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back

Tottenham Hotspur

Accept 2.22 or longer. A ₹100 back at 2.22 pays ₹222 including your stake.

Fair price2.2245%
Lay

Arsenal

Lay only at 3.85 or shorter. At 3.85, a ₹100 lay puts ₹285 at risk to win ₹100.

Fair price3.8526%
SaferThree ways to play itBolder

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Spurs

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Arsenal win loses.

    64% chance1.56

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Under 3.5

    A tight contest is the likeliest outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.

    80% chance1.25

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Spurs 2-0 Arsenal

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

    9% chance11.11

Team shape · 05

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs are well coached, with enough cutting edge to punish errors at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Their game is built on winning the midfield.

Away

Arsenal

Arsenal carry a title-level squad. They suffocate opponents on the road at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, so Spurs will need a disciplined low block to stay in it.

What could change · 06

What would change the KhelKing prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If

    Spurs field a weakened XI

    Then

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If

    Arsenal score first

    Then

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If

    a red card arrives in the first hour

    Then

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read · 07

Spurs vs Arsenal match preview

Arsenal's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

Tottenham Hotspur welcome Arsenal in front of a home crowd, and the KhelKing numbers tilt toward Spurs. As the North London derby, form matters less than usual, so we have pulled the two sides closer together. The expected-goals split (1.36 for Spurs, 0.95 for Arsenal) is the strongest signal, and it drives our 45% for Spurs. Arsenal's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

Fixture timeline · 08

Fixture timeline: Spurs and Arsenal

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Spurs play 3 days after their match at home to Fulham on 02 Dec, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are away at Hull 7 days after this game. Premier League game 14 of 38.

Arsenal play 3 days after their match away at Brentford on 02 Dec, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are at home to Bournemouth 7 days after this game. Premier League game 14 of 38.

They meet again at Emirates Stadium on Sat, 01 May 2027, making this the first of their two league meetings.

  1. 02 DecSpurs vs FulhamTottenham Hotspur Stadium
  2. 02 DecBrentford vs ArsenalGtech Community Stadium
  3. 05 Dec · this matchSpurs vs ArsenalTottenham Hotspur Stadium
  4. 12 DecHull vs SpursMKM Stadium
  5. 12 DecArsenal vs BournemouthEmirates Stadium

Keep reading

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FAQ · 10 questions

Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

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Who will win Spurs vs Arsenal?

KhelKing expects Tottenham Hotspur to win. The goals model rates Spurs 45%, the draw 29% and Arsenal 26%, which we grade as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?

Our projected score is 2-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 14%.

What are the fair odds for Spurs vs Arsenal?

By our numbers: Spurs 2.22, draw 3.45, Arsenal 3.85. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the KhelKing model.

What time does Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal kick off in India?

20:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 05 Dec 2026, 15:00 UK time), at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Arsenal upset Spurs in Spurs vs Arsenal?

26% to win plus 29% for the draw: 55% that Spurs do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. It is the North London derby, where form often counts for little.

How should I trade Spurs vs Arsenal on KhelKing?

By KhelKing numbers, back Tottenham Hotspur at 2.22 or longer, or lay Arsenal at 3.85 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Arsenal fail to win; at 3.85, a ₹100 lay carries ₹285 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Spurs vs Arsenal match kaun jeetega?

KhelKing ke goals model mein Tottenham Hotspur aage hain: Spurs 45%, draw 29%, Arsenal 26%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-0 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Where can I watch Spurs vs Arsenal?

Indian broadcast rights change from season to season, so check the official Premier League listings closer to the day.

How many goals are expected in Spurs vs Arsenal?

2.3 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 11% of the time.

Is it legal to bet on Spurs vs Arsenal in India?

In India, online betting is governed by both central and state law, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money gaming. Check the rules that apply in your state before you play. This is general information rather than legal advice, and KhelKing is for adults aged 18 and over only.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the KhelKing model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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