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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Sunderland vs Liverpool Prediction, score and odds

Sunderland7% · fair 14.29
KhelKing lean79%Sunderland 7%, draw 14%, Liverpool 79%

Draw 14% · fair 7.14

Liverpool79% · fair 1.27
Kick-off
01:45 IST, next day · 20:15 UK
Date
Tue, 05 Jan 2027
Venue
Stadium of Light, Sunderland
UK broadcast
Sky Sports
By KhelKing Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case · 01

Who wins Sunderland vs Liverpool, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Liverpool

  1. 79% to win on the KhelKing goals model, a fair back price of 1.27.
  2. 2.78 expected goals to 0.76: they should create the better chances.
  3. Enough extra quality to overcome a trip to Stadium of Light.
  4. A title-level squad that can change the game from the bench.

How they could upset it

Sunderland

  1. 7% to win plus 14% for the draw: 21% that Liverpool do not win.
  2. The home crowd at Stadium of Light is behind them.
  3. An early goal would force Liverpool to chase.

Goals model · 02

How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Liverpool?

The KhelKing goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Liverpool 79%, draw 14%, Sunderland 7%: a strong lean.
  • Projected score 1-3, with goals expected (3.5 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 50% on the KhelKing model.
Projected score
1-3
Half-time
0-1
Both score
50%
Expected goals
0.76 – 2.78
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors · 03

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Sunderland. It closes the gap but does not erase Liverpool's extra quality.

    EdgeEven

  2. Expected goals

    3.5 expected goals is above the league norm, and over 2.5 lands 68% of the time in our simulations.

    EdgeGoals

  3. Quality gap

    Liverpool rate clearly stronger and the draw is only 14%. If they score first, the game should follow.

    EdgeLiverpool

How to play it · 04

How should you back or lay Sunderland vs Liverpool on KhelKing?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back

Liverpool

Accept 1.27 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.27 pays ₹127 including your stake.

Fair price1.2779%
Lay

Sunderland

Lay only at 14.29 or shorter. At 14.29, a ₹100 lay puts ₹1329 at risk to win ₹100.

Fair price14.297%
SaferThree ways to play itBolder

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Liverpool

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Sunderland win loses.

    91% chance1.10

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Over 2.5

    3.5 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.

    68% chance1.47

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Sunderland 1-3 Liverpool

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

    8% chance12.50

Team shape · 05

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Sunderland

Sunderland are likely to sit in a compact shape at Stadium of Light and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

Away

Liverpool

Liverpool carry a title-level squad. They suffocate opponents on the road at Stadium of Light, so Sunderland will need a disciplined low block to stay in it.

What could change · 06

What would change the KhelKing prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If

    Liverpool field a weakened XI

    Then

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If

    Sunderland score first

    Then

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If

    a red card arrives in the first hour

    Then

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read · 07

Sunderland vs Liverpool match preview

Sunderland's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

Sunderland welcome Liverpool in front of a home crowd, and the KhelKing numbers tilt toward Liverpool. The expected-goals split (0.76 for Sunderland, 2.78 for Liverpool) is the strongest signal, and it drives our 79% for Liverpool. Sunderland's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

Fixture timeline · 08

Fixture timeline: Sunderland and Liverpool

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Sunderland play 3 days after their match at home to Hull on 02 Jan, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are away at Chelsea 11 days after this game. Premier League game 20 of 38.

Liverpool play 3 days after their match at home to Coventry on 02 Jan, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are at home to Palace 11 days after this game. Premier League game 20 of 38.

The two clubs already met at Anfield on Wed, 02 Dec 2026, so this is the return fixture. Shown in the UK on Sky Sports.

  1. 02 JanSunderland vs HullStadium of Light
  2. 02 JanLiverpool vs CoventryAnfield
  3. 05 Jan · this matchSunderland vs LiverpoolStadium of Light
  4. 16 JanChelsea vs SunderlandStamford Bridge
  5. 16 JanLiverpool vs PalaceAnfield

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FAQ · 10 questions

Sunderland vs Liverpool FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

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Who will win Sunderland vs Liverpool?

KhelKing expects Liverpool to win. The goals model rates Sunderland 7%, the draw 14% and Liverpool 79%, which we grade as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Liverpool?

Our projected score is 1-3, with 0-1 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 0-2, at 11%.

What are the fair odds for Sunderland vs Liverpool?

By our numbers: Sunderland 14.29, draw 7.14, Liverpool 1.27. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the KhelKing model.

What time does Sunderland vs Liverpool kick off in India?

01:45 IST, next day in India (UK date Tue, 05 Jan 2027, 20:15 UK time), at Stadium of Light in Sunderland. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Sunderland upset Liverpool in Sunderland vs Liverpool?

7% to win plus 14% for the draw: 21% that Liverpool do not win. The home crowd at Stadium of Light is behind them. An early goal would force Liverpool to chase.

How should I trade Sunderland vs Liverpool on KhelKing?

By KhelKing numbers, back Liverpool at 1.27 or longer, or lay Sunderland at 14.29 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Sunderland fail to win; at 14.29, a ₹100 lay carries ₹1329 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Sunderland vs Liverpool match kaun jeetega?

KhelKing ke goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Sunderland 7%, draw 14%, Liverpool 79%. Sabse sambhavit score 1-3 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Is it legal to bet on Sunderland vs Liverpool in India?

In India, online betting is governed by both central and state law, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money gaming. Check the rules that apply in your state before you play. This is general information rather than legal advice, and KhelKing is for adults aged 18 and over only.

Where can I watch Sunderland vs Liverpool?

UK viewers can watch on Sky Sports. Indian broadcast rights change from season to season, so check the official Premier League listings closer to the day.

How many goals are expected in Sunderland vs Liverpool?

3.5 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 5, and a 0-0 shows up 3% of the time.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the KhelKing model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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