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FootballPremier League · Tyne-Wear derby

Newcastle United vs Sunderland Prediction, score and odds

Newcastle United84% · fair 1.19
KhelKing lean84%Newcastle United 84%, draw 12%, Sunderland 4%

Draw 12% · fair 8.33

Sunderland4% · fair 25.00
Kick-off
20:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 05 Dec 2026
Venue
St James' Park, Newcastle
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By KhelKing Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case · 01

Who wins Newcastle vs Sunderland, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Newcastle United

  1. 84% to win on the KhelKing goals model, a fair back price of 1.19.
  2. 2.64 expected goals to 0.40: they should create the better chances.
  3. Home advantage at St James' Park, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

Sunderland

  1. 4% to win plus 12% for the draw: 16% that Newcastle do not win.
  2. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  3. It is the Tyne-Wear derby, where form often counts for little.

Goals model · 02

How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Sunderland?

The KhelKing goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Newcastle 84%, draw 12%, Sunderland 4%: a strong lean.
  • Projected score 3-0, with goals expected (3.0 xG).
  • It is the Tyne-Wear derby, so expect more bookings and fewer clear-cut chances.
Projected score
3-0
Half-time
1-0
Both score
31%
Expected goals
2.64 – 0.40
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors · 03

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Newcastle are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    EdgeNewcastle

  2. Expected goals

    3.0 expected goals is above the league norm, and over 2.5 lands 58% of the time in our simulations.

    EdgeGoals

  3. Derby intensity

    The Tyne-Wear derby brings added edge, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish tighter than the table suggests.

    EdgeDraw

How to play it · 04

How should you back or lay Newcastle vs Sunderland on KhelKing?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back

Newcastle United

Accept 1.19 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.19 pays ₹119 including your stake.

Fair price1.1984%
Lay

Sunderland

Lay only at 25.00 or shorter. At 25.00, a ₹100 lay puts ₹2400 at risk to win ₹100.

Fair price25.004%
SaferThree ways to play itBolder

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Newcastle

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Sunderland win loses.

    96% chance1.04

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Over 2.5

    3.0 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.

    58% chance1.72

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Newcastle 3-0 Sunderland

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

    15% chance6.67

Team shape · 05

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Newcastle United

Newcastle are well coached, with enough cutting edge to punish errors at St James' Park. Their game is built on winning the midfield.

Away

Sunderland

Sunderland are likely to sit in a compact shape on the road at St James' Park and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

What could change · 06

What would change the KhelKing prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If

    Newcastle field a weakened XI

    Then

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If

    Sunderland score first

    Then

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If

    a red card arrives in the first hour

    Then

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read · 07

Newcastle vs Sunderland match preview

Sunderland's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

Newcastle United welcome Sunderland in front of a home crowd, and the KhelKing numbers tilt toward Newcastle. As the Tyne-Wear derby, form matters less than usual, so we have pulled the two sides closer together. The expected-goals split (2.64 for Newcastle, 0.40 for Sunderland) is the strongest signal, and it drives our 84% for Newcastle. Sunderland's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

Fixture timeline · 08

Fixture timeline: Newcastle and Sunderland

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Newcastle play 3 days after their match at home to Man Utd on 02 Dec, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are away at Ipswich 7 days after this game. Premier League game 14 of 38.

Sunderland play 3 days after their match away at Liverpool on 02 Dec, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are at home to Forest 7 days after this game. Premier League game 14 of 38.

They meet again at Stadium of Light on Sat, 01 May 2027, making this the first of their two league meetings.

  1. 02 DecNewcastle vs Man UtdSt James' Park
  2. 02 DecLiverpool vs SunderlandAnfield
  3. 05 Dec · this matchNewcastle vs SunderlandSt James' Park
  4. 12 DecIpswich vs NewcastlePortman Road
  5. 12 DecSunderland vs ForestStadium of Light

Keep reading

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FAQ · 10 questions

Newcastle United vs Sunderland FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

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Who will win Newcastle vs Sunderland?

KhelKing expects Newcastle United to win. The goals model rates Newcastle 84%, the draw 12% and Sunderland 4%, which we grade as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Sunderland?

Our projected score is 3-0, with 1-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 17%.

What are the fair odds for Newcastle vs Sunderland?

By our numbers: Newcastle 1.19, draw 8.33, Sunderland 25.00. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the KhelKing model.

What time does Newcastle United vs Sunderland kick off in India?

20:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 05 Dec 2026, 15:00 UK time), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Sunderland upset Newcastle in Newcastle vs Sunderland?

4% to win plus 12% for the draw: 16% that Newcastle do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. It is the Tyne-Wear derby, where form often counts for little.

How should I trade Newcastle vs Sunderland on KhelKing?

By KhelKing numbers, back Newcastle United at 1.19 or longer, or lay Sunderland at 25.00 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Sunderland fail to win; at 25.00, a ₹100 lay carries ₹2400 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Newcastle vs Sunderland match kaun jeetega?

KhelKing ke goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Newcastle 84%, draw 12%, Sunderland 4%. Sabse sambhavit score 3-0 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Sunderland?

3.0 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 5% of the time.

Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Sunderland?

We rate both teams to score at 31%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals sits at 58%.

Can Sunderland cause an upset in Newcastle vs Sunderland?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Newcastle's attack. KhelKing gives Sunderland a 4% chance.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the KhelKing model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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