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CricketBangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026 · game 4 of 8

South Africa vs Bangladesh 2nd ODI prediction

South Africa74% · fair 1.35
KhelKing lean74%South Africa 74%, Bangladesh 26%
Bangladesh26% · fair 3.85
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Fri, 27 Nov 2026
Venue
St George's Park, Gqeberha
Format
ODI · 50 overs · two-paced, bowler-friendly pitch
By KhelKing Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case · 01

Who wins SA vs BAN, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

South Africa

  1. Rated 74% by KhelKing, which is a fair back price of 1.35.
  2. A projected 38-run cushion in the first-innings total (329 to 291).
  3. Home conditions: South Africa know a two-paced, bowler-friendly surface like this better than anyone.
  4. Tristan Stubbs, their likeliest match-winner (steady hand in a chase).

How they could upset it

Bangladesh

  1. 26% to win, which is roughly one game in 4.
  2. One big session can flip the momentum of a series.
  3. Rain or a shortened game adds randomness, and randomness helps the underdog.
  4. Mahmudullah can win a game single-handed (balances the xi).

By the numbers · 02

How many runs will South Africa and Bangladesh score?

Projected runs in each phase of the first innings at St George's Park.

  • South Africa rated 74%, a strong lean. Back them only at 1.35 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits bowlers, with South Africa projected to post the higher total.
  • South Africa have home conditions in their favour.
KhelKing pick
South Africa
Format
ODI · 50 overs
Pitch
two-paced, bowler-friendly
Suits
Bowlers
Powerplay (0-10)
Middle Overs (11-40)
Death Overs (41-50)
South Africa BangladeshInnings: SA 305-353 · BAN 267-315

Deciding factors · 03

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    A slow, sticky surface. Most wickets will fall to mistimed drives and pulls rather than unplayable deliveries. Both teams will lean on the bowlers, so the deeper attack counts.

    EdgeEven

  2. Batting edge

    The projection hands South Africa a 38-run cushion, the single biggest reason the model sides with them.

    EdgeSouth Africa

  3. Series pressure

    A win puts South Africa in charge with 4 games to go. A defeat hands Bangladesh the momentum.

    EdgeSouth Africa

How to play it · 04

How should you back or lay SA vs BAN on KhelKing?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back

South Africa

Accept 1.35 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.35 pays ₹135 including your stake.

Fair price1.3574%
Lay

Bangladesh

Lay only at 3.85 or shorter. At 3.85, a ₹100 lay puts ₹285 at risk to win ₹100.

Fair price3.8526%
SaferThree ways to play itBolder

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back South Africa

    Our most likely outcome. Once the back price drops below 1.35, the value is gone.

    74% chance1.35

  2. ValueBalanced

    South Africa first-innings total

    Over 313.5

    We project about 329, comfortably clear of 313.5, so a slow start can still land it.

    60% chance1.67

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Tristan Stubbs (South Africa)

    Steady hand in a chase. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

    24% chance4.17

Match-winners · 05

Who can swing South Africa vs Bangladesh?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

South Africa

  • Tristan Stubbs91

    Steady hand in a chase

  • Marco Jansen81

    Balances the XI

Bangladesh

  • Mahmudullah97

    Balances the XI

  • Mustafizur Rahman90

    Trusted at the end of the innings

What could change · 06

What would change the KhelKing prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If

    Tristan Stubbs misses out

    Then

    South Africa would drop by about five points, turning this into a strong lean.

  2. If

    Bangladesh win the toss

    Then

    On a pitch where the toss counts, that alone shifts a couple of points to Bangladesh.

  3. If

    rain cuts the overs

    Then

    A shorter game adds randomness, which works in the underdog's favour.

The long read · 07

South Africa vs Bangladesh match preview

Without either, the favourites should stay in control.

With 4 games of Bangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026 still to play, match 4 can tilt the series. South Africa rate 74% because both their batting and their attack fit these two-paced, bowler-friendly conditions a little better. South Africa are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. Bangladesh need early wickets or one match-winning innings. Without either, the favourites should stay in control.

On the toss: Bowl first. Scoring gets harder as the game goes on at this venue.

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline · 08

Fixture timeline: 2nd ODI

Rest days, travel and what comes next in Bangladesh tour of South Africa, 2026.

The 2nd ODI is staged at St George's Park in Gqeberha on Fri, 27 Nov 2026, game 4 of 8 in the series.

The 1st ODI comes 4 days before this game at Buffalo Park in East London, so the squads travel to Gqeberha in between. That is enough recovery for both sides to field their first-choice XIs.

Next on the calendar: the 3rd ODI, 4 days after this game at Newlands in Cape Town.

More from St George's Park on the KhelKing schedule: 2nd Test: South Africa vs Australia (24 Oct) (1 fixture in total).

  1. 23 Nov1st ODI: South Africa vs BangladeshBuffalo Park
  2. 27 Nov · this match2nd ODI: South Africa vs BangladeshSt George's Park
  3. 01 Dec3rd ODI: South Africa vs BangladeshNewlands

Keep reading

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FAQ · 10 questions

SA vs BAN 2nd ODI FAQs

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Who will win the South Africa vs Bangladesh 2nd ODI?

KhelKing expects South Africa to win, rating them 74% against 26% for Bangladesh, which is a strong lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a two-paced, bowler-friendly surface at St George's Park should play.

What are the fair odds for South Africa in the SA vs BAN 2nd ODI?

A 74% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.35 for South Africa and 3.85 for Bangladesh. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the SA vs BAN 2nd ODI start in India?

The series window places it on Fri, 27 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) at St George's Park, Gqeberha, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. KhelKing updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for St George's Park in the SA vs BAN 2nd ODI?

We expect a two-paced, bowler-friendly surface that should favour the bowlers. A slow, sticky surface. Most wickets will fall to mistimed drives and pulls rather than unplayable deliveries.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the SA vs BAN 2nd ODI?

Bowl first. Scoring gets harder as the game goes on at this venue. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can Bangladesh win the SA vs BAN 2nd ODI?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. KhelKing gives Bangladesh a 26% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or South Africa change their best XI.

Why could Bangladesh upset South Africa in the SA vs BAN 2nd ODI?

26% to win, which is roughly one game in 4. One big session can flip the momentum of a series. Rain or a shortened game adds randomness, and randomness helps the underdog. Mahmudullah can win a game single-handed (balances the xi).

How should I trade the South Africa vs Bangladesh 2nd ODI on KhelKing?

By KhelKing numbers, back South Africa at 1.35 or longer, or lay Bangladesh at 3.85 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Bangladesh fail to win; at 3.85, a ₹100 lay carries ₹285 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

South Africa vs Bangladesh 2nd ODI match kaun jeetega?

KhelKing ke model ke mutabik South Africa ka palda bhaari hai: 74%, jabki Bangladesh ka 26%. Match Fri, 27 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

SA vs BAN 2nd ODI ke liye Gqeberha ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch two-paced, bowler-friendly rahegi, yaani gendbaazon ka palda bhaari rahega aur score kam rahega. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the KhelKing model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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